A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
