A mere 60 days in the past when the Villa attacker found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as the Villa manager berated him over not reading a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a symptom or the reason of the side's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction proved to be much more joyous. When the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club continued to ten wins in a row , despite not winning their opening six matches, now sit just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?
That’s a rather hard question to resolve. History, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.
As per the data, in only two games has the side posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side who have just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear weirdly vulnerable – but right now the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to save the day with a couple of crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again against Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents managed more shots and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent the club will encounter in the near future. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting his shots into the top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The winger might become the player he was in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.
This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine the young forward now would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like a vital Three Lions star.
The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it seems so surreal. When Rogers stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.
